534 pages : 23 cm

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future -- Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events -- In "The Signal and the Noise", the "New York Times'" political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball -- In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism -- What lies behind their success? -- And why do so many predictions still fail? -- By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction -- We live in an increasingly data-driven world, but it is harder than ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information -- In this dazzling insider's tour of the world of forecasting, Silver reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives

This work explores the history, art and science of prediction

Includes bibliographical references and index

A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to frown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em ... -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you

plus-circle Add Review

comment

Reviews